DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/30 10:48
Soybean Futures Down Over 20 Cents Midday Friday
Corn is 7 to 8 cents lower, soybeans are 23 to 27 cents lower and wheat is 7
lower to 2 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 75 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.25 higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are mixed
with crude up $0.10. Livestock trade is flat to weaker. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down $9.00.
Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower at midday Friday with spread trade slightly
firmer after September/December went flat Thursday with range-bound action
likely to continue short term and good rain potential for much of the Western
Corn Belt this weekend, pushing back to the lower end of the range. Ethanol
margins likely remain rangebound to end the week with driving demand remaining
in line with recent weeks. Brazil will continue to move along with the end of
the second crop season and frost issues still being watched as crop estimates
continue to trickle lower, while near-term weather looks to remain mixed into
August. Corn basis continues to fade with cash inverses likely to see more
pressure as wheat and southern sorghum start to become available to feed. On
the September contract, resistance remains at $5.55 20-day moving average with
further support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.28.
Soybeans are 24 to 27 cents lower at midday with weaker product action
dragging trade back to the lower end of the range. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower
and oil is 1.65 cents to 1.85 cents lower. The weather pattern brings some rain
to the West short term. South America will continue to ship soybeans while the
run in canola values turns more sideways, keeping a lid on oil values as well.
Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. On the September soybean
chart, support is at the 20-day at $13.69, which we are back below at midday,
with the lower Bollinger Band at $13.15 as further support.
Wheat trade is 7 cents lower to 2 cents higher with spring wheat weaker on
spread unwinding to end the month as harvest expands and the crop tour shows
yields in the upper 20s, bushel-per-acre wise, with winter wheats edging back
higher from early lows. Harvest will continue to expand across Europe and the
Black Sea with mixed results so far and Canada on deck while the dollar has
edged back above 92 points on early strength. KC holds at 32-cent discount to
Chicago, flat after early weakness, with Minneapolis at a 205-cent premium,
holding in the middle of the recent range and off the week's highs. KC
September on the chart has support at the 20-day at $6.34 with resistance the
upper Bollinger Band at $6.91.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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