DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/19 11:37
Corn, Soybeans Lower at Midday, Wheat Mixed
Row crops surrender early gains, with wheat still mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 135 points higher. The
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 20 points lower.
Energies are mixed, with crude 0.10 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder
cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 6.50.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade turning lower after
failing to hold early gains. Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and
movement, which will continue for a bit with a wet start to April expected.
South America crop progress should remain uneventful in the near term with
Brazil trending drier for double crop corn. Ethanol margins have improved with
production disruptions boosting producer margins with futures backing off their
highs this a.m., while rising unleaded values help blender margins hold the
line. Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The slow
start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term. On the May
chart support is the 10-day at $3.69 which we are testing at midday, with the
next level of resistance the 20-day at $3.72 3/4, which we failed to hold above
Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with trade still working to hold the
$9.00 area. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Trade news
remained mixed with some sources hinting the final summit will be delayed until
June. South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming
days with Brazil harvest moving along and normal progress in Argentina. Crush
margins remain strong overall with meal still hanging near $310 a ton. On the
May chart support is the $9.01 10-day moving average, with the 20-day at $9.09
the next level up which we remained just below.
Wheat trade is mixed with trade 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher with winter
wheat giving up the gains again. Trade is still focused on oversold conditions
with the large fund short remaining in place with planting season coming up for
spring wheat, and weather likely to remain challenging. Export news will be
focused on in the near term with exports potentially slowing from the Black Sea
area. Cooler than normal weather will keep wheat development slow on the
plains. Wheat basis varies widely on product and location. On the May Kansas
City chart support is the 10-day at $4.33 which we remain just above, with the
20-day at 4.43 which we tested before failing.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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