DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/17 12:06

   Cattle Contracts Lower, African Swine Fever Outbreak Growing

   Thursday's headline of lower markets only gets worse when news continues to 
break about more confirmed outbreaks of African swine fever. 

By ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

General Comments

   Cattle markets drop lower and lower and the world's fight with African swine 
fever continues. Livestock markets aren't performing well Thursday with feeder 
cattle and lean hog contracts taking the biggest losses. December corn is up 3 
cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is down 21.25 points and NASDAQ is up 16.67 points. 

   LIVE CATTLE 

   Live cattle prices are weaker Thursday morning. The December market opened 
steady but has since softened and is trading $0.07 lower at $113.80. All other 
markets are taking the day's arrival harder ranging $0.12 to $1.00 lower. 
Thursday's hesitant nature isn't going to summon higher cash prices easily. A 
bid of $173 has been placed in Nebraska and bids of $175 in Iowa, but as of 
right now it looks as if this week will be a later trading week again. Still 
unaware of the explosion's mass and importance, Cargill announced Thursday 
morning that a standalone building as part of the Dodge City, Kansas, plant 
exploded. The plant will be close as a precautionary measure. Cargill plans to 
meet all its supply commitments to beef buyers. 

   Midday boxed beef prices are up: choice up $0.51 ($218.79) and select up 
$0.06 ($191.43). Thursdays offering of boxed beef totals 55 loads (28.82 loads 
of choice, 10.32 loads of select, 5.25 loads of trim and 10.69 loads of ground 
beef). 

   FEEDER CATTLE 

   All feeder cattle markets are down over $1.00 with some markets nearing 
$2.00 lower. October feeder cattle are down $1.50 at $143.75, and November 
feeder cattle are down $2.00 at $143.92. Is it weakness seeping over from the 
live cattle market? Is it the market correction that analysts have been 
muttering about? Or is it more industry based and a reflection of saturated 
sale barn markets? Regardless of the reason, feeder cattle markets are down and 
don't look promising for the rest of the day. 

   LEAN HOGS 

   With more alarming news of new cases of African swine fever, the lean hog 
market softens, and U.S. hog producers eagerly wait for a more news about 
export opportunities. December lean hogs are down $2.37 at $68.25. Nearby 
contracts are taking the day's storm the hardest, deferred contracts are lower 
but most still only gave up less than 50 cents. Thursday morning news broke 
that the small island of Timor-Leste has had 100 confirmed outbreaks of the 
disease, and at least 400 mortalities. The island is only 400 miles from 
Australia. 

   The projected lean hog index for 10/16/19 is up $0.96 at $64.90, and the 
actual lean hog index for 10/15/19 came to $63.94, up $1.02. Prices are down on 
the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.03 with a weighted average of 
$57.65, ranging from $54.00 to $60.00 on 3,100 head sold and a five-day rolling 
average of $57.55. Pork cutouts totaled 175.26 loads with 143.84 loads of pork 
cuts and 31.42 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.04 at $76.68. 

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com 


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